In 2004 the Iowa Electronic Markets had a much higher success in predicting the outcome of the national elections than polls. They claim a better than 75 percent accuracy rate in political predictions. Another trading entity, the WSX, Washington Stock Exchange also trades in election predictions and presently they are saying republicans have a 67.9 percent chance to retain the Senate.
Many graphs and charts and trading numbers on these two sites, many of which I don't understand, but find fascinating to try and decifer.
intrade trading exchange is another site with people using real dollars. lot different than polls. this site acurately predicted the presidential election in 04 with teh voate percentages within a percentage point. republicans will lose between 20 and 25 house seats and keep the senate. talent loses, corker wins, allen loses, burns wins and upset special steel wins in maryland. chaffe, santorum, dewine lose. net gain for dems 4 seats. locally, mcglynn wins and paul evans wins judicial race in st. clair county.
Posted by: ron | November 02, 2006 at 05:39 PM
Considering that fewer than 10% of house seats are really in play, a 75% success rate is really not that good. I'd bet most of the so-called prediction sites will be closer to 95% correct; maybe higher.
Posted by: rand | November 02, 2006 at 07:40 PM